介護離職の社会的損失―アップデートと時系列推移―

　Kishida（2020）estimated the number of labor force exiters unemployed due to family care and their lost income. We updated the result of Kishida（2020）and modified the estimation method of the lost income. We defined labor force exiters as those who were out of work 2 years after they exited. The results using the latest Employment Status Survey for 2022 are as follow. Among the 10.6 thousand annual care leavers, 35.9％ restarted work and the remaining 64.1％ exited the labor market. Three-fourths of returned to the exiters were non-regular workers. Among the care leavers previously in regular employment who returned to the labor market, 34.4％ of them restarted work as regular workers and the remainder restarted work as non-regular workers. Among the exiters, the ratio of care leavers to all exiters was 3.8％ . More than 10％ of women exiters of 40-50 years of age were care leavers. Hence, the loss of middle-aged employment due to care leavers is significant.
　The wages of care leavers' previous jobs are indispensable for calculating the loss of income. However, our data did not contain the necessary information. Hence, as a proxy variable, we used the wages of workers whose attributes are similar to the ones of the care leavers. Additionally, in the loss of income calculation, we considered the income accrued from restarting work.
　The total loss of income during one year after care leave was 187.4 billion yen. We decomposed the income loss into the loss incurred by being unemployed and the loss incurred by getting a job that pays less than the previous one. The former loss was 77.1％ and the latter one was 22.9％ . Approximately 70％ of the income loss due to wage declines was due to previous full-time employment, and 86.3％ of that was due to resuming work as non-full-time employment with significantly lower wages. If the separation period lasts for more than one year, the income loss for society as a whole is the sum of the income losses in the years when the separation period is different. Based on our calculations, the annual income loss was at least 403.2 billion yen.
　The number of people leaving the labor market was 74,400 in 2012, 63,700 in 2017, and 68,100 in 2022. In 2012, when the unemployment rate was high, the return to work rate was lower than in 2017 and 2022, and the number of people leaving the labor market was relatively high. Income losses were 382.1 billion yen in 2012, 363.9 billion yen in 2017, and 399.2 billion yen in 2022. The breakdown of income losses by cause was roughly the same.

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