start-ver=1.4
cd-journal=joma
no-vol=14
cd-vols=
no-issue=1
article-no=
start-page=6
end-page=
dt-received=
dt-revised=
dt-accepted=
dt-pub-year=2021
dt-pub=20211222
dt-online=
en-article=
kn-article=
en-subject=
kn-subject=
en-title=
kn-title=Delayed Evacuation after a Disaster Because of Irrational Prediction of the Future Cumulative Precipitation Time Series under Asymmetry of Information
en-subtitle=
kn-subtitle=
en-abstract=
kn-abstract=This study investigated biased prediction of cumulative precipitation, using a variety of patterns of histories of cumulative precipitation, to explore how such biased prediction could delay evacuation or evacuation orders. The irrationality in predicting the future of cumulative precipitation was examined to obtain insights into the causes of delayed evacuation or evacuation orders using a simulated prediction of future cumulative precipitation based on the cumulative precipitation history. Anchoring and adjustment, or availability bias stemming from asymmetry of information, was observed in the prediction of cumulative precipitation, and found to delay evacuation or evacuation orders.
en-copyright=
kn-copyright=

en-aut-name=MurataAtsuo
en-aut-sei=Murata
en-aut-mei=Atsuo
kn-aut-name=
kn-aut-sei=
kn-aut-mei=
aut-affil-num=1
ORCID=

en-aut-name=DoiToshihisa
en-aut-sei=Doi
en-aut-mei=Toshihisa
kn-aut-name=
kn-aut-sei=
kn-aut-mei=
aut-affil-num=2
ORCID=

en-aut-name=HasegawaRin
en-aut-sei=Hasegawa
en-aut-mei=Rin
kn-aut-name=
kn-aut-sei=
kn-aut-mei=
aut-affil-num=3
ORCID=

en-aut-name=KarwowskiWaldemar
en-aut-sei=Karwowski
en-aut-mei=Waldemar
kn-aut-name=
kn-aut-sei=
kn-aut-mei=
aut-affil-num=4
ORCID=

affil-num=1
en-affil=Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University
kn-affil=

affil-num=2
en-affil=Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University
kn-affil=

affil-num=3
en-affil=Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University
kn-affil=

affil-num=4
en-affil=Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida
kn-affil=
en-keyword=flooding of riverbanks
kn-keyword=flooding of riverbanks
en-keyword=delayed evacuation
kn-keyword=delayed evacuation
en-keyword=cumulative precipitation
kn-keyword=cumulative precipitation
en-keyword=asymmetry of information
kn-keyword=asymmetry of information
en-keyword=prediction failure
kn-keyword=prediction failure
en-keyword=anchoring and adjustment
kn-keyword=anchoring and adjustment
en-keyword=availability bias
kn-keyword=availability bias
END