start-ver=1.4 cd-journal=joma no-vol=18 cd-vols= no-issue=7 article-no= start-page=1181 end-page= dt-received= dt-revised= dt-accepted= dt-pub-year=2026 dt-pub=20260407 dt-online= en-article= kn-article= en-subject= kn-subject= en-title= kn-title=Predictive Nomogram for Recurrence After Upfront Surgery for Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Multicenter Study (OS-HBP-2) en-subtitle= kn-subtitle= en-abstract= kn-abstract=Background/Objectives: Postoperative recurrence is a critical issue in the treatment of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (rPDAC). Moreover, the prognosis after early recurrence is extremely poor. This study aimed to develop a recurrence prediction model and to define early recurrence after upfront surgery (UFS) for rPDAC. Methods: This multicenter retrospective study included patients who underwent UFS for anatomically rPDAC between January 2013 and December 2017. Multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the risk factors for recurrence-free survival and to construct a recurrence prediction model. Subsequently, a minimum p value approach was used to determine the optimal cutoff values for early and late recurrence. Results: The cohort included 603 patients (325 men and 278 women). During the median follow-up period of 25 months (interquartile range, 15?38 months), 381 patients (63.2%) experienced a recurrence. Multivariate analyses revealed carbohydrate antigen 19-9 ?37 U/mL (hazard ratio [HR], 1.58; p < 0.001), tumor size ? 2.2 cm (HR, 1.59; p < 0.001), lymph node metastasis (HR, 1.86; p < 0.001), R1 resection (HR, 1.56; p = 0.002), and no adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 1.54; p < 0.001) as independent predictors. The recurrence prediction model demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.72?0.75. The optimal threshold for early and late recurrences was a recurrence-free interval of five months. Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 ? 156 U/mL was a significant predictor of early recurrence (OR, 3.28; p < 0.001). Conclusions: This study identified the prognostic risk factors for recurrence and developed a recurrence prediction model for patients undergoing UFS for rPDAC. Moreover, a recurrence-free interval of five months was identified as the optimal threshold for distinguishing between early and late recurrences. en-copyright= kn-copyright= en-aut-name=YoshidaRyuichi en-aut-sei=Yoshida en-aut-mei=Ryuichi kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=1 ORCID= en-aut-name=TakagiKosei en-aut-sei=Takagi en-aut-mei=Kosei kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=2 ORCID= en-aut-name=YasuiKazuya en-aut-sei=Yasui en-aut-mei=Kazuya kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=3 ORCID= en-aut-name=HiokiMasayoshi en-aut-sei=Hioki en-aut-mei=Masayoshi kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=4 ORCID= en-aut-name=OkabayashiTakehiro en-aut-sei=Okabayashi en-aut-mei=Takehiro kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=5 ORCID= en-aut-name=KojimaToru en-aut-sei=Kojima en-aut-mei=Toru kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=6 ORCID= en-aut-name=EndoYoshikatsu en-aut-sei=Endo en-aut-mei=Yoshikatsu kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=7 ORCID= en-aut-name=NobuokaDaisuke en-aut-sei=Nobuoka en-aut-mei=Daisuke kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=8 ORCID= en-aut-name=SuiKenta en-aut-sei=Sui en-aut-mei=Kenta kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=9 ORCID= en-aut-name=InagakiMasaru en-aut-sei=Inagaki en-aut-mei=Masaru kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=10 ORCID= en-aut-name=ShinouraSusumu en-aut-sei=Shinoura en-aut-mei=Susumu kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=11 ORCID= en-aut-name=KimuraMasashi en-aut-sei=Kimura en-aut-mei=Masashi kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=12 ORCID= en-aut-name=MatsudaTatsuo en-aut-sei=Matsuda en-aut-mei=Tatsuo kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=13 ORCID= en-aut-name=AokiHideki en-aut-sei=Aoki en-aut-mei=Hideki kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=14 ORCID= en-aut-name=FujiwaraToshiyoshi en-aut-sei=Fujiwara en-aut-mei=Toshiyoshi kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=15 ORCID= affil-num=1 en-affil=Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences kn-affil= affil-num=2 en-affil=Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences kn-affil= affil-num=3 en-affil=Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences kn-affil= affil-num=4 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Fukuyama City Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=5 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Kochi Health Sciences Center kn-affil= affil-num=6 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Okayama Saiseikai General Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=7 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Himeji Red Cross Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=8 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Fukuyama City Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=9 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Kagawa Prefectural Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=10 en-affil=Department of Surgery, National Hospital Organization Fukuyama Medical Center kn-affil= affil-num=11 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Tsuyama Chuo Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=12 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Matsuyama Shimin Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=13 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Tenwakai Matsuda Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=14 en-affil=Department of Surgery, National Hospital Organization Iwakuni Clinical Center kn-affil= affil-num=15 en-affil=Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences kn-affil= en-keyword=pancreatic cancer kn-keyword=pancreatic cancer en-keyword=resectable kn-keyword=resectable en-keyword=upfront surgery kn-keyword=upfront surgery en-keyword=recurrence kn-keyword=recurrence en-keyword=nomogram kn-keyword=nomogram END