start-ver=1.4 cd-journal=joma no-vol=17 cd-vols= no-issue=22 article-no= start-page=3694 end-page= dt-received= dt-revised= dt-accepted= dt-pub-year=2025 dt-pub=20251118 dt-online= en-article= kn-article= en-subject= kn-subject= en-title= kn-title=Prognosis Prediction Model After Upfront Surgery for Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Multicenter Study (OS-HBP-2) en-subtitle= kn-subtitle= en-abstract= kn-abstract=Background/Objectives: Upfront surgery (UFS) remains the standard treatment for patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We aimed to investigate the prognostic factors for survival after UFS in patients with resectable PDAC and to develop a prognostic prediction model. Methods: This multicenter, retrospective study included 603 patients who underwent UFS for resectable PDAC between January 2013 and December 2017. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). We constructed a prognostic prediction model for OS after UFS. An internal validation was performed to evaluate the discriminative performance of the model. Results: The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 83.7%, 48.2%, and 37.5%, respectively. The Cox proportional hazards model showed that tumor size > 2 cm (hazard ratio [HR] 1.50, p = 0.001); tumor contact with the portal and superior mesenteric veins of ?180 (HR 1.47, p = 0.003); carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels of 40 to 500 U/mL (HR 1.59, p = 0.002) and ?500 U/mL (HR 2.16, p < 0.001); and a modified Glasgow Prognostic Score of two (HR 1.56, p = 0.038) were predictors associated with OS. The prognostic prediction model for 5-year OS demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.68. The calibration plots indicate a concordance index of 0.63. Conclusions: We identified the preoperative prognostic factors for OS and developed a prognostic prediction model to estimate OS in patients undergoing UFS for resectable PDAC. Our model may be useful and internally validated for predicting OS. en-copyright= kn-copyright= en-aut-name=TakagiKosei en-aut-sei=Takagi en-aut-mei=Kosei kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=1 ORCID= en-aut-name=YoshidaRyuichi en-aut-sei=Yoshida en-aut-mei=Ryuichi kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=2 ORCID= en-aut-name=YasuiKazuya en-aut-sei=Yasui en-aut-mei=Kazuya kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=3 ORCID= en-aut-name=HiokiMasayoshi en-aut-sei=Hioki en-aut-mei=Masayoshi kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=4 ORCID= en-aut-name=OkabayashiTakehiro en-aut-sei=Okabayashi en-aut-mei=Takehiro kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=5 ORCID= en-aut-name=KojimaToru en-aut-sei=Kojima en-aut-mei=Toru kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=6 ORCID= en-aut-name=EndoYoshikatsu en-aut-sei=Endo en-aut-mei=Yoshikatsu kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=7 ORCID= en-aut-name=NobuokaDaisuke en-aut-sei=Nobuoka en-aut-mei=Daisuke kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=8 ORCID= en-aut-name=SuiKenta en-aut-sei=Sui en-aut-mei=Kenta kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=9 ORCID= en-aut-name=InagakiMasaru en-aut-sei=Inagaki en-aut-mei=Masaru kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=10 ORCID= en-aut-name=ShinouraSusumu en-aut-sei=Shinoura en-aut-mei=Susumu kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=11 ORCID= en-aut-name=KimuraMasashi en-aut-sei=Kimura en-aut-mei=Masashi kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=12 ORCID= en-aut-name=MatsudaTatsuo en-aut-sei=Matsuda en-aut-mei=Tatsuo kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=13 ORCID= en-aut-name=AokiHideki en-aut-sei=Aoki en-aut-mei=Hideki kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=14 ORCID= en-aut-name=FujiwaraToshiyoshi en-aut-sei=Fujiwara en-aut-mei=Toshiyoshi kn-aut-name= kn-aut-sei= kn-aut-mei= aut-affil-num=15 ORCID= affil-num=1 en-affil=Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University kn-affil= affil-num=2 en-affil=Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University kn-affil= affil-num=3 en-affil=Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University kn-affil= affil-num=4 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Fukuyama City Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=5 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Kochi Health Sciences Center kn-affil= affil-num=6 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Okayama Saiseikai General Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=7 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Himeji Red Cross Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=8 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Fukuyama City Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=9 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Kagawa Prefectural Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=10 en-affil=Department of Surgery, National Hospital Organization Fukuyama Medical Center kn-affil= affil-num=11 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Tsuyama Chuo Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=12 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Matsuyama Shimin Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=13 en-affil=Department of Surgery, Tenwakai Matsuda Hospital kn-affil= affil-num=14 en-affil=Department of Surgery, National Hospital Organization Iwakuni Clinical Center kn-affil= affil-num=15 en-affil=Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University kn-affil= en-keyword=pancreatic cancer kn-keyword=pancreatic cancer en-keyword=resectable kn-keyword=resectable en-keyword=upfront Surgery kn-keyword=upfront Surgery en-keyword=outcomes kn-keyword=outcomes END