為替相場変動と経済不安定問題―「国際不調整」と日本の視点から―

After temporally large decreasing in the early '90 s, current account imbalances abruptly had increased again above a hundred billion US dollars (yearly base) from 1993 to 1995 both in Japan (surpluses) and the United States (deficits). There have been some controversies over the cases of those imbalances among academic circles and some economists in economic think-tanks. One of the controversies is about a theoretical macro-balance. Those concerning long-term equilibrium approach emphasise structural factors on domestic gap between saving and investment balance of both the United States and Japan. On the contrary, those concerning short-term balance approach claim that external imbalances have been affected by short-term fluctuating factors, especially by the differential of both countries' economic growth. In line with the latter approach, this paper introduces a new concept of 'international mal-adjustments' on explaining about the problem of such external imbalances. From the viewpoint of a realistic approach, intractable large-scale current account imbalances (more than two percentages of GDP) of both Japan and the United States in recent years had been complained and claimed to be corrected by some important policy changes of both countries under the leadership of Clinton' administration since its inauguration in 1993. International mal-adjustments has been bringing big monetary and economic problems, in particular to Japanese economy. This paper depicts such problems as yen's super appreciation and Japan's protracted zero or one percent economic growth in recent years.

論説 (Article)