Diabetes Burden in the Middle East and North Africa Region, 1990–2023: An Ecological Time-Trend Analysis of GBD Estimates

Background and Objectives: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has one of the highest age-standardized diabetes prevalence rates globally, yet all-age, diabetes-specific evidence incorporating GBD 2023 estimates through 2023 remains limited. Materials and Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 21 MENA countries from 1990 to 2023, this ecological time-trend analysis quantified 33-year trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); compared pre-2019 and post-2019 trajectories using joinpoint regression; characterized age- and sex-specific burden patterns; and quantified contributions of modifiable risk factors. Results: Age-standardized incidence increased 92%, from 251.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 231.5 to 272.4) to 482.5 (95% UI: 451.5 to 516.4) per 100,000, and prevalence more than doubled, from 5564 (95% UI: 5088 to 6024) to 11,247 (95% UI: 10,382 to 12,132) per 100,000. In 2023, males exhibited higher DALY rates than females in most adult age groups from age 15 years onward, shifting away from the female-predominant pattern seen in 1990; female rates remained higher at several of the oldest age groups. Children aged 0 to 14 years were the only group with declining DALY rates (−52% to −57%). Post-2019 incidence was higher in 15 of 21 countries, and six countries had higher DALY trends with non-overlapping confidence intervals. Because we only have four to five years of data, these short trends are preliminary and require care when evaluating. High body-mass index was the leading modifiable risk factor. Conclusions: These data support country-specific prevention and chronic-care strategies across the MENA region.