Statistical modeling for analysis of malaria epidemic behavior at Ishigaki　Island

It is necessary to consider a stochastic variability in modeling malaria epidemic behavior since the　malaria infection cycle essentially depends on stochastic elements. For this requirement, we need to construct an appropriate statistical model from available data in advance. In this report, we provide some statistical models for the analysis of malaria epidemic behavior at Ishigaki Island. These models can be used for recurrence of past malaria epidemic and prediction of future malaria epidemic at Ishigaki Island.

本研究は，厚生労働科学研究費「新興・再興感染症の研究」（Grant no. H17-Sinko-ippan－019）の補助を受けて行った．