このエントリーをはてなブックマークに追加
ID 41541
JaLCDOI
Sort Key
6
タイトル(別表記)
Fluctuations, Risks and Uncertainty in Economics
フルテキストURL
著者
西垣 鳴人 岡山大学 Kaken ID publons researchmap
抄録
This note aims at preparing a fundamental framework for our dynamics models taking true uncertainty concept into consideration, and it states the following. First, the rationalities supposed in non-neoclassical economics such as economics of complexity or economics of anomalies are wider sense concepts than that supposed in rational expectation hypothesis.But these schools coincide with each other in the viewpoint of the assumption of stationarity in the economic processes or ergodicity in the stochastic processes. Their main difference just exists between their scopes of stationarity or those of ergodicity. Second, their difference above is not a matter in the face of unpredictable economic shocks, which interrupt stationary states in any sense and should not be in any category of ergodic stochastic processes. Such a shock has a tendency to enlarge uncertainty consciousness in the mental states of the economic units whether another economic shock would come or not in the near future. Increased uncertainty might prevents a person from his rationally expecting, or if we support economics of complexity, we would think that enlarged uncertainty consciousness in human mind might invalidate the several buffers such as inventories, money and credit system, by which economic units deal with some fluctuations in normal ergodic processes. Lastly, however, uncertainty in economics is just a psychological phenomena which we may almost neglect in an ordinary way although it occasionally has serious influences on our economy. Accordingly, we should never regard uncertainty in our models as a universal factor but as a peculiar thing after an economic shock.
備考
研究ノート (Note)
出版物タイトル
岡山大学経済学会雑誌
発行日
1998-09-10
30巻
2号
出版者
岡山大学経済学会
出版者(別表記)
The Economic Association of Okayama University
開始ページ
163
終了ページ
194
ISSN
0386-3069
NCID
AN00032897
資料タイプ
学術雑誌論文
OAI-PMH Set
岡山大学
言語
Japanese
論文のバージョン
publisher
NAID
Eprints Journal Name
oer