岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告 ISSN 2187-6940
Published by Faculty of Environmental Science and Technology, Okayama University

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Evaluation for interventions against influenza of H5N1 in Sapporo-city by using an Individual Based Model

Morimoto, Tomoko
Zenihana, Tomohiro
Maitani, Yusuke
Abstract
The spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) among domestic poultry and wild birds has caused global concern over the outbreak of an influenza pandemic of H5N1. The "Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Action Plan" determines the strategy against an influenza pandemic in Japan. Simulations were carried out using an individual based model (IBM). The IBM targeted a virtual area with a population of 100,000 using the demographic data of Sapporo-city, Hokkaido. The effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP), geographical targeted antiviral prophylaxis (GTAP), school closure, and pre-pandemic vaccination were explored. Moreover, this study focused on infections among children, who have a high attack rate, and analyzed the effectiveness of interventions for school-age targeted antiviral prophylaxis (STAP). Consequently, TAP, which is recommended by the "Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Action Plan", was found to have high effectiveness in the suppression of the outbreak. Moreover, this study showed the importance of intervention among children, such as STAP and school closure, to prevent the spread of H5N1 influenza.
Keywords
Influenza
Pandemic
H5N1
Individual Based Model (IBM)
Sapporo
Note
This work was supported in part by a Grant-in-Aid from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan for "Research for Emerging and Re-emerging infectious diseases"(Grant no. H20-Sinkou-ippoan-015).
ISSN
1341-9099
NCID
AN10529213