A Forecasting Decision Support System

Hanaa, E.Sayed
Hossam, A.Gabbar
Soheir, A. Fouadc
Khalil, M. Ahmedc
Miyazaki, Shigeji
Abstract
Nowadays forecasting is needed in many fields such as weather forecasting, population estimation, industry demand forecasting, and many others. As complexity and factors increase, it becomes impossible for a human being to do the prediction operation without support of computer system. A Decision support system is needed to model all demand factors and combine with expert opinions to enhance forecasting accuracy. In this research work, we present a decision support system using winters’, simple exponential smoothing, and regression statistical analysis with a new proposed genetic algorithm to generate operational forecast. A case study is presented using real industrial demand data from different products types to show the improved demand forecasting accuracy for the proposed system over individual statistical techniques for all time series types.
Keywords
Forecasting
Genetic Algorithm
Regression Analysis
Support System